Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Magnitude Between Mw = 4 and Mw = 5 for Turkey - Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction Access content directly
Conference Papers Year : 2019

Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Magnitude Between Mw = 4 and Mw = 5 for Turkey

Cihan Çetinkaya
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 1053487
Nazmiye Çelik
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 1053488

Abstract

Earthquake is a type of disaster that occurs suddenly in different magnitudes. When magnitude of an earthquake increases it is expected that the effects are much more. Earthquakes in varying magnitude between 4 Mw and 5 Mw cause uneasiness among the public even if they do not cause heavy damage. The aim of this study is to estimate the probability of an earthquake between 4.0 and 5.0 by using artificial neural network model. Monthly real data between 2006 and 2015 is used for the model. Data is analyzed in MATLAB neural network tool, then estimated output value obtained via analysis and output of test value is compared with regression equation. Besides, seasonal effects on magnitude of earthquake are examined. Results show that 90.51% of the earthquake probability between 4.0 and 5.0 can be estimated by using artificial neural network model.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
467711_1_En_9_Chapter.pdf (544.66 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
Loading...

Dates and versions

hal-02280325 , version 1 (06-09-2019)

Licence

Attribution

Identifiers

Cite

Türkay Dereli, Cihan Çetinkaya, Nazmiye Çelik. Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Magnitude Between Mw = 4 and Mw = 5 for Turkey. 2nd International Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction (ITDRR), Oct 2017, Sofia, Bulgaria. pp.96-107, ⟨10.1007/978-3-030-18293-9_9⟩. ⟨hal-02280325⟩
55 View
25 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More